Oscar Nominations: My Picks, Pans and Early Predictions
Don't get me started on "The Whale."
Now that the post-announcement frenzy has quieted somewhat, I nobly rise above the noise to offer a totally honest reaction to this week’s big Oscar nominee reveal, specifically the six major categories.
The envelopes, please.
Best Picture: The Academy nominated a terrific mix of 10 films, from supernova blockbusters (Top Gun: Maverick, Avatar: The Way of Water), show-stopping nonconformists (Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once) and critics’ darlings (Tár, The Banshees of Inisherin, Women Talking) to international offerings (Triangle of Sadness, All Quiet on the Western Front) and a sincere Spielberg drama (The Fabelmans).
Will win: Everything Everywhere All at Once, which scored an impressive 11 nods, anointing the sci-fi sleeper hit as the frontrunner to beat. With mounting momentum and goodwill, it’s got a lot going for it — an original, high-concept conceit (a mother-daughter dramedy, but set in the multiverse!), a clever, fresh-faced filmmaking collective (the Daniels, a.k.a. Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, the Matt and Ben of directors), and marvelous performances from Michelle Yeoh, Ke Huy Quan, Stephanie Hsu and Jamie Lee Curtis.
Should win: Everything Everywhere. But may I also propose a tie between Tár, a gripping, darkly funny exploration of gender and power, and Elvis, an unconventional, un-boring biopic that brings The King back to hip-swiveling life?
Snubbed: The crowd-pleasing mega-hit Black Panther: Wakanda Forever as well as Babylon, a critically maligned homage to Hollywood’s Silent Era as over-the-top exhausting as it is entertaining. Go ahead and skip the latter or see it so you can knowledgeably pan it!
Best Actress: We’ve got Yeoh, Cate Blanchett (Tár), Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans), plus two surprises, Ana de Armas as Marilyn Monroe in Blonde, a controversial role for which she just received a Razzie nomination, and Andrea Riseborough in The Low-Budget Indie That Could, To Leslie, about an alcoholic who squanders her lottery winnings. Unlike Melissa Leo’s widely mocked yet ultimately successful “For Your Consideration” campaign of 2011, Riseborough took a grassroots approach to building buzz for an acclaimed but little-seen performance, calling upon influencers like Gwyneth Paltrow and Jennifer Aniston to host VIP screenings for Academy voters.
Will win: My gut instinct says Yeoh, a living legend who has made overdue history as the first self-identified Asian actress to be nominated in this category.
Should win: My heart says Blanchett, who invented Acting, I’m pretty sure.
Snubbed: Viola Davis and Danielle Deadwyler for The Woman King and Till, respectively, two phenomenal candidates whom the Riseborough campaigners pushed out of the competition.
Best Actor: The roster spotlights first-timers Austin Butler (Elvis), Colin Farrell (Banshees), Paul Mescal (Aftersun), Bill Nighy (Living), and unfortunately, Brendan Fraser in The Whale, the most awful film I have seen in years and one that continues to make money in theaters, buoyed by enthusiastic support for Fraser, a very nice man and an actor you’d think would be too smart for such nonsense. When journalist Michelle Konstantinovsky requested my strong opinion for her excellent piece on the film’s harmful fatphobia, I gave her an earful:
Look, I know we love Brendan Fraser and want the best for him, but please do not spend a dime to see his comeback performance in The Whale, the worst Oscar contender this side of Babylon. It is insulting and demoralizing and contributes nothing positive to the culture. Of all the great unmade scripts at his disposal, Darren Aronofsky makes this movie? He is painfully out of touch here, transforming Fraser's character into a cautionary tale rather than a person worthy of respect, joy and humanity. Unfortunately, The Whale follows a terrible Hollywood tradition of hiring actors to wear fat suits in movies (Gwyneth Paltrow in Shallow Hal, Ryan Reynolds in Just Friends, the list goes on), then giving them a pat on the back, maybe even an Oscar nomination, for their daring performances — give me a freaking break. This trend needs to end, and if the backlash against The Whale is any indication, it might with Fraser.
Will win: Fraser. The Academy loves to pat itself on the back, what can I say?
Should win: Butler. He didn’t impersonate Elvis, he became a mortal vessel for the icon’s spirit — a spirit he can’t quite shake.
Snubbed: Tom Cruise, magnificent in the Top Gun sequel, and Tom Hanks, understated and heartbreaking in A Man Called Otto. (Hanks’ polarizing turn as Colonel Tom Parker in Elvis perhaps clouded his chances for Otto.)
Best Supporting Actress: Hats off to Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever), Kerry Condon (Banshees), Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere), Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere) and Hong Chau, the only good thing about The Whale.
Will win: Bassett!
Should win: Bassett! Or Hsu! (All of the above!)
Snubbed: They were long shots anyway, but Janelle Monáe and Kate Hudson both shined in Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery.
Best Supporting Actor: Meanwhile, Ke Huy Quan, who recently won a Golden Globe for Everything Everywhere, leads rivals Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans), Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway) and two magnetic Irishmen, Banshees co-stars Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan, whose dual presence for the same film neutralizes the other’s chances of winning.
Will win: Quan.
Should win: Quan!
Snubbed: Paul Dano for The Fabelmans. His portrayal of Spielberg’s dull, even-keeled father is quietly powerful, maybe too subtle to be grouped among these aforementioned showmen.
Best Director: Behind the camera, we have The Daniels (Everything Everywhere), Spielberg (The Fabelmans), Martin McDonagh (Banshees), Todd Field (Tár) and Ruben Östlund (Triangle of Sadness).
Will win: The Daniels.
Should win: For me, it’s a draw between The Daniels — how’d they even do that?! — and Field, who came back roaring with his first film in 16 years, presenting Blanchett as we’ve never seen her before.
Snubbed: Women! Remember when the Academy nominated Little Women for Best Picture but inexplicably failed to give Greta Gerwig a nod for directing it? Alas, snubbing female filmmakers is a tradition as old as time, and this year’s slights — Sarah Polley (Women Talking) and Gina Prince-Bythewood (The Woman King), among others — signal, I would argue, that Hollywood remains all talk and no action, silent enablers of a brewing cultural backlash against women for #MeToo, etcetera. Yesterday, a friend who’s a film critic for a major outlet dared mention the lack of representation in her Oscar-nominee analysis and the trolls on Twitter lost their minds, as the trolls are wont to do. One faceless account was like, “MAKE BETTER MOVIES.” (Ew. Gross. Bye.)
A friendly reminder that Women Talking is up for Best Picture — go see it, so you can knowledgeably praise it!